Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,464$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(620 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67,440.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 52.7)}}\) (asimptote \(67,440.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,371$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(29.1 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,961$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,534$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(538 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,917.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 49.9)}}\) (asimptote \(82,917.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,200$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(23.3 \times 10^{0.040t}\) (doubling rate \(7.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,806.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,806.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,900$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $97,100$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,149.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 53.8)}}\) (asimptote \(281,149.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,761$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(181 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,162.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(15,162.4\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,402$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,435$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(974 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,254.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(22,254.9\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $247$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(17.6 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{282.0}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(282.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,616$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,285$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(446 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,736.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,736.9\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $324$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(28.6 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{360.6}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 25.6)}}\) (asimptote \(360.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,295$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,229$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(43.9 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,414.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,414.4\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $66$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(8.87 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(118.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,029$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,681$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(461 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,852.6}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,852.6\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $237$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(25.6 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{292.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(292.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,124$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $652$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(159 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{606.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 18.3)}}\) (asimptote \(606.2\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.32 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 26.4)}}\) (asimptote \(25.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $195$ on 2020-05-02
